Trump tariff shock causes four-year low to oil
While energy imports were exempt from the tariffs, the market responded negatively to the broader trade conflict. The new tariffs brought the rate on Chinese goods to 104%, up from the previously announced 34%. In retaliation, China imposed a 34% tariff on US goods, intensifying fears of an economic slowdown.
Further pressure came from OPEC and its allies, who announced a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for May, which analysts believe could lead to an oversupply and deepen the price decline. David Morrison, a senior market analyst, described the combination of Trump’s tariffs and the OPEC+ production boost as a "double whammy" for oil prices.
While the White House has aimed to bring oil prices down to $50 or lower, some analysts believe oil prices may stabilize within a narrow range due to weaker demand and strong supply. Trump has touted this drop in oil prices as a benefit of his trade strategy, but Russia has warned that the ongoing tariff wars could harm its economy, especially with falling oil prices and weakening demand for energy resources.
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