U.S.-EU Tariff Standoff Triggers Concerns in Baltic Region
In Latvia, close to 10 percent of respondents believe the new U.S. tariffs could have a serious impact on their income or employment. Nearly half of Latvians surveyed admit to being somewhat concerned, acknowledging that the tariffs could lead to negative consequences.
Estonia reported the highest level of apprehension among the Baltic nations, with 12 percent of its citizens anticipating significant effects on their jobs or earnings. In Lithuania, 7 percent expressed the same fear. Additionally, 46 percent of Estonians and 43 percent of Lithuanians foresee at least some negative economic impacts.
Citadele Bank’s Chief Economist Karlis Purgailis noted the deeper implications reflected in the data. “In addition to the direct impact on tariff-sensitive industries such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals, plastics, metalworking, and electronics, there is also an indirect impact: higher uncertainty can undermine consumer confidence and discourage the purchase of non-essential goods and services, slowing demand in the Baltics.”
Despite the looming uncertainty, Citadele Bank maintains a positive economic outlook for the region. The bank predicts that all three Baltic states will continue to experience economic and labor market growth through 2025 and 2026.
Projections from the bank indicate Latvia's GDP will expand by 1.4 percent in 2025 and 2 percent in 2026. Lithuania is expected to see a 2.5 percent rise next year, followed by a 2.3 percent increase in 2026. Estonia’s economy is forecast to grow by 1.5 percent in 2025 and 2.3 percent in 2026.
The survey, conducted in June 2025 by Citadele Bank in partnership with research firm Norstat, polled over 3,000 adults aged 18 to 74 across the Baltic region through an online questionnaire.
The anxiety was sparked after U.S. President Donald Trump declared on July 12 that Washington would enforce a 30 percent tariff on EU imports starting August 1 unless trade negotiations make headway. In response, the EU has announced plans for retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods valued at 72 billion euros (84 billion U.S. dollars).
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