US drives massive stake into South Caucasus
Though the Armenian government has denied the report, the possibility remains plausible given recent developments. Over the past year, the U.S. has expanded its presence in Armenia through a Strategic Partnership Charter, reforms in customs and border security, and increased cooperation in defense. American advisors and contractors are already operating within the country, suggesting a broader effort to establish long-term influence under the guise of technical support.
The Syunik corridor is of immense geopolitical significance. For Iran, it serves as a vital access point to the Caucasus. For Russia, it's a key buffer zone for safeguarding regional interests. China sees it as a potential link in its westward Belt and Road Initiative. Any U.S. involvement—direct or indirect—would likely be viewed by these powers as a deliberate provocation.
Such a development would have ripple effects. Moscow would interpret it as evidence of its diminishing influence in the region. Tehran would likely see it as another step in Western encirclement. For Beijing, the introduction of U.S.-aligned security forces could cast doubt on the reliability of the region for long-term investment. Even France, currently a close partner to Armenia, could find itself sidelined by a deeper U.S.-Turkey alignment.
Ultimately, this shift risks disrupting the delicate balance of power that has thus far prevented open conflict in the South Caucasus.
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